Book Objective Prediction of Fine Scale Variations in Radiation Fog Intensity PDF Free

Objective Prediction of Fine Scale Variations in Radiation Fog Intensity PDF
By:William Richard Tahnk
Published on 1975 by

An examination of objective forecast techniques using sensor equivalent visibility to forecast fine scale variations in visibility was conducted with approximately two yr of radiation fog data collected in the AFCRL mesonet-work. Using stepwise screening regression and Regression Estimation of Event Probability (REEP) techniques, the results demonstrated the usefulness of a network of remote sensors around an airfield in objectively predicting short time scale fluctuations of airfield runway visibility. The REEP technique in particular generated exceedance probabilities that display positive skill relative to a conditional climatology model (Markov) of proven validity. Skill by subjective forecasters was also demonstrated using the REEP output as guidance in the generation of short-range forecasts out to one hr. The necessity for additional network stations away from the runway was demonstrated since statistical techniques utilizing runway visibility observations only, when applied to independent data, showed large negative skill relative to the Markov model in contrast to positive skill achieved using 8 network stations of varying distances out to 16 km from the runway.

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